Elon Musk: With Steve Jobs Gone, Google Will Win The Mobile War

(6:41 pm PDT, Nov 19th 2012)

Elon Musk: With Steve Jobs Gone, Google Will Win The Mobile War

During a roundtable session at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office in London, world-renowned entrepreneur Elon Musk gave his opinions and impressions on a number of topics. Issues ranging from sustainable energy to planet colonization were bounced off the brain of Mr. Musk. As the man behind multiple $50 billion companies shared his insight, the billion dollar question was asked: “Who will come out on top: Apple, Microsoft, Google, or Facebook?”

“It’s the grudge match,” he said, as he went on to talk about this Silicon Valley battle royal and how great it was for consumers.

So who did Elon think would come out on top?

While he didn’t go as far as to crown an all encompassing champion, he did award the mobile gold belt to ours truly — Google.

I think probably Google will win on the phone because Jobs is out of the picture. It matters quite a lot who runs the company. Years ago they were lowering Apple into the grave. But like that scene from Kill Bill, they punched through the coffin. it really makes a difference who runs the company. Larry Page is quite good and probably in the long run will come out on top.

Was Steve Jobs really that important to the success of Apple? I’d say so, and judging by the first year without him at the helm, I’d say Mr. Musk’s predictions are spot on.

While Musk clearly doesn’t have faith in Apple’s current leadership, it was interesting that he never even bothered to mention Microsoft. That’s got to sting for the company trying to tile its way back into the homes of consumers.

I’d say “long-term” is a bit of a misnomer in the fast moving world of mobile. However, I don’t see anyone challenging Google or Apple’s hold on the mobile market for at least 5 years — and even then, I have no idea who it would be.

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  • ddevito

    duh

  • Steven Quan

    In 2007 it was hard to envision anyone beating out RIM’s Blackberry as the best selling smartphone. Fast forward to 2012 and RIM is completely irrelevant, been irrelevant for the past 2 years. You can’t project what will happen 5 years from now, 5 years is an eternity in the fast moving sphere of mobile. Nobody knows what will happen next. Maybe Microsoft will be the number one player 5 years from now?

  • http://twitter.com/gnomehole The Gnome

    More cult of Fagdroid stuff in my newsfeed. You can’t even get that right, how are we to believe your fanboyism around Google taking over the world. (hell they can’t even release an OS without making another mess)

    What a den of Google nerds this is.

    • MacAdvisor

      As a gay man, I object to the word,”Fagdroid.” Do you contend there is something wrong with being gay? May I suggest you not use such homophobic terms in a polite and respectable place like this and save them for the White Power comment boards where they are so prevalent.

  • Mitch

    In b4: “blah blah blah why is this shit in my Cult of Mac feed?”

  • http://twitter.com/markrlangston Mark Langston

    Grasping for straws are we? Willing to take the word of any sap with an opinion willing to name a winner of the mobile war in your favor.

    But it’s not about a cross-the-finish-line-first type of winner but more about how you measure success. Is success having the most? In that regard Honda is more of a success than Ferrari or Aston Martin because there’s a ton more Civics and Accords on the roads than V12 Vantage Coupes. There’s a tons more McDonald’s than Smashburgers or In-N-Out diners so I guess that means McDonald’s burgers are better than every other diner on the planet, right?

    But you’re right about one thing, for all of Microsoft’s efforts no one’s really paying attention not even putting them in the race for any real contention. What does it say about your product when it can’t beat RIM. A company dying a fast and painful death is still more popular than Windows Phone 7 or 8.

    • MacAdvisor

      Given Elon Musk’s track record and accomplishments, I don’t think he is just “any sap with an opinion.” I would give his opinion and advice thorough consideration. However, your point is well taken. The question asked is ““Who will come out on top: Apple, Microsoft, Google, or Facebook?” I think the answer very much depends on how one measures what “on top” means. Does it mean whose ideas will dominate the market, who is making the most money, or who has the most phones sold each year? I wish the questioner had been more explicit so Mr. Musk’s answer would be clear. If I had to guess, the answer Musk gave seems to indicate he believes Google will be more innovative in the long run than Apple.

      With Steve gone and Larry Page at Google, I don’t think that is such a bad guess on Mr. Elon’s part. Steve contributed to vital and related factors to Apple. First, he was an absolute genius at seeing the future of technology and what would matter. Second, he was an absolute ruler preventing even the hint of political infighting. Clearly, Apple is not a dictatorship any longer and the goal is to develop harmony in the management group (hence the ouster of Forstall). Additionally, I don’t think anyone suggests Tim Cook’s vision for the future of technology is as prescient as Jobs’ or even equal to Page’s. I think Cook is an excellent manager and process guy. Jobs was, to be kind, not great as a manager and really bad at process. The two made a good team, but where is the strong voice at Apple for what comes next?

      Google has a market cap of about $220 billion or so. I think it could be purchased for about $300 or $350 billion. Perhaps Apple should use part of its projected $200 billion cash reserves next year and some stock (say $100 billion in cash and $200 – $250 billion in Apple stock) to buy out Google to install Larry as the Chief Technology Visionary. If Page can keep winners coming as Jobs did, $350 billion is a cheap price to pay.

  • David Renner

    Hmm, says the guy who’s suckered investors into manufacturing ultra expensive electric cars with little or no electric car travel infrastructure. Like I’m going value deeply this guy’s opinions.

    • sowhat

      Like I am going to value yours…. Let’s see…on the one hand there is Elon Musk who has a space craft docked at ISS and a very impressive Tesla car company (you really should drive one before bashing them) and then on the other….we have David Renner.

  • bdkennedy11

    Google employes Eric Schmidt who is a moron. Google had to steal the iPhone, and like Microsoft, lacks focus and innovation. Phones have become so small and technologically advanced in such a short period of time, there’s little room for innovation from anyone at this point. Apple is going to have to focus on new products other than the iPhone. They can’t just keep making them thinner and faster forever.

  • http://twitter.com/owerrc Owen Chen

    i like how people points out “he didn’t even mention microsoft” blahblahblah. Facebook was part of the question too, he didn’t say anything about that either. Just had to take a stab at microsft eh?

    • VinMessina

      I was simply trying to stick to his comments about the mobile market. He did mention Facebook and it’s covered in the Via article. Here’s what he said btw:

      “Facebook is quite entrenched and has a network effect. It’s hard to break into a network once it’s formed. But I’m quite glad there is Twitter there as well. Twitter’s growth is astounding and I slightly trust Twitter a little more. I don’t use Facebook,” he said.

  • http://www.igeeksblog.com/ Jignesh Padhiyar

    Quite a good news for Andy’s out there. From a neutral point of view, this sure is good news. Every company that’s at the pinnacle of its stardom needs some kicks to prevent overdoing certain things. Apple appears to be at that stage where there are only upgrades and hardly any new innovation.

  • Actionable_Mango

    Android already has more market share than iOS. BUT, 2/3 of Google’s mobile revenue comes from iOS. So far Android has been a money loser for Google, and is only profitable for Samsung and, strangely enough, Microsoft.

    So the better question is, why would they want to win the mobile war?

About the author

Vincent MessinaVincent Messina has been writing and evangelizing about Android for the past three years. When he's not playing the part of "Loki" to his 5 and 4-year-old, he can be found here, covering all things Android. He adamantly believes Android has the greatest community around and can be harassed at any of the following locations: Google+, Twitter.

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