IDC Increases Its 2012 Tablet Forecast, Predicts Android Overtaking iOS By 2016

(5:54 pm PDT, Mar 13th 2012)

IDC Increases Its 2012 Tablet Forecast, Predicts Android Overtaking iOS By 2016
Today the International Data Corporation raised its 2012 tablet forecast to 106.1 million units, up from its previous forecast of 87.7 million units thanks to a stronger-than-expected 2011 finish. According to IDC, tablet shipments rose 155%, leading to a full-year 2011 total of 68.7 million units shipped. The IDC credits Amazon for raising consumers’ awareness of the tablet category in 2011 thanks to their popular $199 Kindle Fire.

The Kindle Fire’s success solidified its position as the second most popular tablet with 16.8% market share while Apple remains on top with 54.7% worldwide market share. The introduction of the Kindle Fire along with the myriad of Android tablets popping up also has the IDC forecasting an eventual Android takeover by 2016. Although they forecast Android’s market share dominance, they fully expect iOS to remain the revenue market share leader through the end of 2016 and beyond.

If you ask me, they’re trying to forecast a market with more unknown variables than a highschool algebra test but since it only took Android 3 years to overtake iOS in the smartphone market, it’s definitely plausible. What do you guys think?

via Electronista

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  • DaReality

    These companies are having such a hard time forecasting the growth rate of the iPad it is hilarious.  The way Apple is entering schools, government and business with the iPad is unbelievable.  We haven’t began to see how much growth the iPad has in it and it dominates the market.  

    Also I believe you will see more Android OEMs start dropping out the race than you do with smartphones.  They (Android tablet manufacturers) can’t keep the price of a quality tablet down like Apple does.  Smartphones has the help of subsidies.

    • http://twitter.com/AndreGSNE Andre Goh

      I think apple is good,they really keep the quality up. i used to think android was just a lousy,laggy and kinda steals apple’s stuff kind of OS. But i tried it and, i was blown away. Maybe the past android phones weren’t good, but right now,they are amazing. Frankly, i have even stopped using my ipod touch.

  • http://www.facebook.com/mjardeen Michael Jardeen

    First they will need to be able to compete. Amazon is not selling an Android device, they are selling a custom OS device for no margin and hoping to make money on content. Other than Google, MS (who does not do hardware in this category), and Borders who else can sell stuff with no margin. Are ATT and Verizon going to sell ‘no contract’ plans for Android tablets? Note the absence of Win8 tablets from this chart?!? I think what you have to do is put the Fire in one category, iPad in another and then ask what will be left for the real Android and Win8 tablets. I think that is a much more interesting questions. As for Apple, the  price wars are not an issue. THey will smile and watch Android and Win8 feed on it own and make almost nothing in return while Apple piles on the cash. At some point if they actually felt threatened they can do more than just release last years model at $399. If Apple releases a 7″ device then the game really is over.

    In my opinion IDC is smoking the crack they almost always smoke when they make these predictions.

  • http://twitter.com/AndreGSNE Andre Goh

    After getting the HTC rhyme(which is considered lousy compared to the recent phones),my view on Apple and Android totally changed.Android is really amazing,very open and customizable and has an overall more exciting experience.Apple on the other hand, is just like Beats by Dr.Dre-overpriced and popular due to hype and marketing.Hence, i believe Android has the potential to take over iOS,but will be difficult due to hype.

    • Sdreed91

      Hype? The majority of carrier commercials puts the spotlight on Android. It’s quality and competitive pricing that keeps Apple ahead in the market, not hype.

      • http://twitter.com/AndreGSNE Andre Goh

        Erm,competitive pricing?bullshit.And i meant all over the world,over here there are no commercials.

  • jdsonice

    And where did IDC get the data from? Oh! Wait they pulled it out of their ass. 

    I am not saying they are wrong, I disagree that they have the capability to accurately forecast anything four years from now.

  • Gonji

    The other companies may sell more tablets, however, the iPad will continue to grow and provide Apple with a majority of the profits, not just revenue. As was mentioned by Michael Jardeen, companies like Amazon, B&N and Borders can sell tablets as loss leader, but who else can. The other companies will have razor thin margins and will only just be hanging in the market. They can’t compete with Apple’s supply chain.

     @ Andre Goh 
    Your Android device is good now, no arguments there. But how about when the next Android update happens and you can’t upgrade unless you root your device. The problem with Android is the experience starts off good, but then you are left hanging by the OEM’s and the carriers when it comes to OS upgrades; they’re just not interested. All they want to do is sell you a new Phone. Just ask the people that bought the original Samsung Galaxy S phones two years ago. 

    • http://twitter.com/AndreGSNE Andre Goh

      I see you have a point there.i agree that apple does always push out updates for most of their devices.But,their updates are of almost no use.just look at recent iOS 5,most were all copied from the Jailbreak community or Android all already had.And speaking of Android updates, that’s just how technology works,software is always advancing,you can’t expect the hardware to magically advance too.And i am really happy with my device,why cry over something i can’t have?(referring to the updates that i can’t have.)

      • Gonji

        “But,their updates are of almost no use.just look at recent iOS 5,most were all copied from the Jailbreak community or Android all already had.”
        Being copied doesn’t mean they are of no use, at least to an iOS user. And once in a while they come out with something superior and better implemented; Siri, for instance.

        “And speaking of Android updates, that’s just how technology works,software is always advancing,you can’t expect the hardware to magically advance too.”

        Software is advancing, except when you can’t access the advances and that is the problem with Android for many. 

        Hardware is advancing too fast in many respects, with the Andriod device OEM’s trying to outpace each other on specs and features, which is why many people like the stability of Apple with its yearly update cycle; you feel you have the latest and greatest gadget for a longer time.

        “And i am really happy with my device…”

        More power to you. If it works for you, all good. No problem with that.

        “…why cry over something i can’t have?(referring to the updates that i can’t have.” 

        This is where I hope it keeps working for you and you get the updates you SHOULD be able to get.

        Enjoy your Rhyme.

  • Alan Liddell

    I knew this had to have been crossposted over at Cult of Mac. Every time that happens the fanboys come out of their little echo chamber, fingers in their ears and shouting.

  • Mark Yaunish

    Has anyone been checking out the details of the latest Apple upgrades?  The only thing new feature on the latest iPhone is Siri which Apple licensed from Dragon Dictate.  The main feature on the new iPad is the Retina display which Apple purchases from Samsung.  Watch for the new Majel voice system from Google and Samsung will announce a new Android tablet soon using the Retina display. (plus the 41 megapixel camera from Nokia)

About the author

Vincent MessinaVincent Messina has been writing and evangelizing about Android for the past three years. When he's not playing the part of "Loki" to his 5 and 4-year-old, he can be found here, covering all things Android. He adamantly believes Android has the greatest community around and can be harassed at any of the following locations: Google+, Twitter.

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